After two years governing Turkey, Prime Minister Tansu Ciller's government has been unable to fulfill promises made to Turkish citizens in 1993. The present situation in Turkey can be characterized by civil unrest, a crippled economy, and regional tension with its neighbors. Thus, despite the government's claim of justification for its military incursion, "Operation Steel," the operation may bolster Ms. Ciller's (and her party's) popularity in the 1996 elections. Nevertheless, some believe that Turkey's real problems will not be solved unless a "Second Republic" is formed. This is a much deeper problem.

Operation Steel

While millions of Kurds in the Middle East, Europe, and the Unites States were prepared to celebrate the Kurdish new year Newroz on March 21, Turkish military forces were invading Kurdistan-Iraq. It was reported that about 35,000 soldiers, backed by air power and tanks, passed the Iraqi border in what was described as "the biggest Turkish military operation since Cyprus in 1974," according to the March 21 edition of the Turkish newspaper Milliyet. It was also reported that the aim of the Turkish forces was to put an end to the Partia Karkaren Kurdistan (PKK) operations launched from across the Iraqi border. Turkish President Suleyman Demirel told Iranian President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani that the incursion sought to combat terrorism and to re-establish stability in the border areas. The Prime Minister claimed that the area suffered a "power vacuum" and thus the Turkish army should clear it by uprooting the PKK's terrorist operations. However, many voiced suspicions of this official version of the operation's final objective.

The operation was condemned by both Iraqi Kurdish parties -- the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), -- the European Union, and the PKK. On the other hand, Iran, Iraq, Syria and the United States expressed their "understanding" of the Turkish operation.

It may no be so widely known that in the last three years, Turkey has bombarded the Iraqi Kurdish area many times to destroy PKK bases. Further, Turkey pushed its ground troops across the border in 1991 and 1992. The latter incident happened after Kurdish Parliamentary elections took place, and the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) was established when an estimated 10,000 Turkish troops invaded Iraq with assistance from the KRG militia. After four weeks the troops withdraw from the area due to a special arrangement made between the Turkish army on one side and the KDP and PUK on the other.

However, the situation changed after 1993, when Ms. Ciller

"We will put an end to terrorism. We are determined. Any country with self-respect will not, cannot permit terrorism. Thus, for these reasons, I have instructed our valued armed forces to start a military operation in Northern Iraq." Prime Minister Tansu Ciller's "Address to the Nation"

was elected. None of the Iraqi Kurdish leaders has met officially a high-ranking Turkish official. Also, inter-fighting between the KDP and PUK has made it difficult to control the border area. Thus, an estimated 2,500 to 3,000 PKK guerrilla troops were group in to 12 camps on the Iraqi side at the time of the incursion.

After the first seven weeks of the invasion, Turkish officials claimed they had achieved most of their objectives and consequently withdrew about 30,000 troops. Turkish military sources stated they had killed 555 PKK militia men and had cleansed a 14,000-square-kilometer area of PKK bases. The operation cost about $56 million in its first month. It was also reported that the Turkish Government was negotiating with the leaders of the KDP and PUK to reactive the 1992 arrangements.

Although the government has claimed that Operation Steel was successful, it is unlikely to solve the real problems facing the country today, one of which is Turkey's identity.

Secularism versus Islamism

The ideological principal of modern Turkey (known as Kemalism), was developed by the Republic's founder Mustafa Kemal "Ataturk" in the 1920s. This principal consists of both state secularism and Turkish nationalism. The Turkish military (mainly the National Security Council) is considered to be the guardian of Kemalism. The military generals seized state power in 1961, 1971, and 1980 when they felt there was a threat to their Kemalist System.

Secularism in Turkey today faces a new challenge from religiously oriented groups led by the Rafah Party. Claiming over 3 million members and winning local elections in more than 420 towns and cities, including Ankara and Istanbul, Islamic groups are growing in strength. Significantly, there are more than 1,000 new mosques built every year throughout Turkey, Many students prefer to attend Islamic-oriented private schools rather than government schools. Within a few years about one million students will be graduating from private schools.

During her visit to the United States Prime Minister Ciller (also representing the right-to- center True Path Party) asked for help to prevent "Fundamentalist Muslims" from destroying the only successful "secular, democratic Muslim country in the world". Furthermore, she warned Europe that if it rejects Turkey's membership in a European union, "the Turkish people could turn to Islamic Fundamentalism." A month before Ciller's visit, Mr. Mesut Yilmaz, leader of the Motherland Party (Turkey's second largest political party), visited Washington to assure US policymakers that his party is ready to lead the country and solve its political and economic problems.

Both political parties are trying to secure the support of the Turkish military and the West before the 1996 elections The Rafah Party predicts that its membership will exceed 4 million by the end of this year. In the West some interpret the success of the Rafah party as a sign of public disappointment in the government's performance. However, attendance at private schools and mosques by larger numbers of youth and the appearance of women wearing traditional Islamic dress in public places are signed of a society that may be in transition from secularism to Islamism. This trend will hardly change regardless of who wins the elections in 1996. Some now go so far as to predict that only a military coup could save secularism in Turkey.

Democracy versus Turkishness

Before the establishment of the Turkish Republic and while Mustafa Kemal was leading the Turkish Liberation Movement, he acknowledged the assistance of Kurds. He considered his struggle "not just for the Turks, but for the Kurds, too." However, in the 1930's the idea of "one Turkish nation" and "one Turkish state" was developed. Two ideological concepts supported this development: the Turkish History Thesis and Sun Language Theory. According to these concepts, all the world's civilizations are founded by Turks and all world languages are derived from Turkish. Thus, the Kurds were called "mountain Turks." Turkey's ban on Kurdish identity was only ended by the late President Turgut Ozal when he admitted "the Kurdish reality" in 1990.

Ozal's realization of Kurdish reality was considered too little and too late by the Kurds and was resisted by conservative Turkish elites. Kurdish activists and political groups had already launched political and military campaigns to establish a federated or independent state in the area populated by a majority of the Kurds. The PKK, for example, began its military operations in 1984. By 1990 the number of casualties reached approximately 9,000. On the other hand, Turkish military generals believed that any recognition given to the Kurds will be co-opted by the PKK. Thus, the generals have decided to crush any Kurdish movement -- peaceful or military-oriented.

In the process of fighting the PKK, Turkey declared 10

"This Turkish policy is clearly targeting the whole of the Kurdish nation. It is becoming very obvious that the military operations are not bringing any results. It is time to put peaceful and democratic solutions on the table." PKK Chairman Abdullah Ocalan's response to the Turkish invasion.

provinces in the Kurdish area under a State of Emergency. Military forces were given a free hand to "solve" the Kurdish problem. Nevertheless, the war in the Kurdish area reflected negatively on Turkey's experiment in democracy. The government issued Article 8 of the Anti-Terrorism Law to bring to trial any person who expressed an opinion about any Kurdish issue different from the official view. Accordingly Turkey's Human Rights Association , 118 people are currently in jail and another 2,139 have been convicted but are appealing their sentences, and 5,600 others have been charged and are waiting trial. The trials of Kurdish members of Parliament and the Turkish writer Yasar Keman, the country's most famous novelist, are two examples of continued human rights violations. These actions were condemned worldwide, including by the United States, Turkey's closest ally.

Hard Choice

It is unlikely that the present Turkish operation in northern Iraq will end PKK military actions. After all, while Ms. Ciller was welcoming the return of Turkish troops from Iraq, other units of the military were fighting the PKK within Turkish borders: in Batlis, Mus, Siirt, and Tunceli. Since 1984, more than 200,000 Turkish troops deployed in southeast Turkey have been trying to eliminate PKK military activities without success. In the beginning of the spring of the last three years, the Turkish military has attached various areas within Turkey to destroy PKK households. Fighting since 1984 has claimed more than 15,000 lives, destroyed unmeasurable amounts of property, and burned down more than 1, 500 villages.

Will it be possible for the democratic experiment in Turkey to survive this decade? While she was in the United States, Ms. Ciller promised to eliminate Article 8 of Anti-Terrorism Law. The latest news regarding this issue reported that even Ms. Ciller's own party has rejected her initiative.

In an article published in The Washington Post last December, Leyla Zana, former member of Turkey's parliament, indicated that nothing less than giving Kurds their rights would prevent Turkey from turning to Islamic fundamentalism. And she warned the West that Turkey's secularism could end just a quickly as it did for the Shah of Iran. The PKK has asked the Turkish Government to negotiate ending the Kurdish problem peacefully. Although the PKK's offer has been rejected by the government, one now envisions that only an alliance between Turkish and Kurdish secularists groups could save Turkey's secularism.

On the other hand, high officials in the Rafah Party have downplayed the impact of the allegations against them. They stated that they came to power three times in the seventies without changing the Kemalist System. Since they had a significant victory in the Kurdish area in the last elections, they believe they can solve the Kurdish problem through economic development there. They call for social changes according to Islamic principles and more economic cooperation with Islamic countries.

With western criticism against its record on human rights, civil unrest, and economic hardship all on the increase, Turkey has to make a hard choice to save the country now. It seems authorities have to choose between either commitment to secularism or "Turkishness" to save the state. Either choice will end the "First Republic."

NAMAH, Vol. III, No. 2, Summer, 1995, pps. 3 and 4.